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The iPad. Will it make me happy?

iPad. Record revenue and sales for Apple. Why all the buzz? We investigate the Gartner Hype Curve to understand. But the bigger question is: Will it make me happy?

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Apple closed a record second quarter in June.  Even with the iPad launch, Macs had their best performance ever:  3.47 million sold, up 33% over last year.  iPhone sales were up 61% over the same period with 8.4 million units. Even though iPods are in a slight decline, Apple still sold 9.41 million of them. Sales are split equally between the US and the rest of the world, so no reason to write off the iPod.  To the first time buyer in Estonia, for example, it is just as cool as the iPad to an American.

What everyone is talking about--and won't shut up about, in fact--is the iPad.  Apple sold 3.27 million in the second quarter.  So popular, they are rationed them in the store. No more than 2 per person. What's even more impressive is that the first million iPads sold in just 28 days.  The iPhone took 72 days to reach the million mark.  And we haven't even mentioned apps.

With $15B in revenue, Apple has a nice fat 20% profit margin.  Steve Jobs is enjoying demigod status, the modern day Moses bringing the tablet down from the Apple Mount.  I am hard-pressed not to find any person who does not love his iPad.  I only know of one guy who dares to speak the sacriledge of enjoying paper over the digital notebook.HypeCurve

Trying to put all this into perspective, let's investigate the Hype Curve from the Gartner Group.  This graph illustrates the typical pattern of innovation and uptake in the market.  We start with the hype or the Peak of Inflated Expectations then crash to the Trough of Disillusionment, then we move to the Slope of Enlightenment, and at last the Plateau of Productivity. If the continued sales are any indication, it seems that Apple is enjoying an extended peak of Inflated Expectations.  Some iPad lovers have told me that this peak will go on forever.

Beyond the hype, there is a bigger question. The sentiment is captured so well by the New Yorker carton from the May 31, 2010 issue.  The cartoon features Mac ipadnewyorkerlovers in an Apple store trampling across each other to buy an iPad.  One unwitting bloke asks the Mac Specialist (that's the store employees are called), "Will it make me happy?"  Cartoonist David Sipress lampoons the craze.

Indeed, if we take the classical view of economics, man is a rational being. These record sales for iPad means that consumers are intending to their own gain and maxizing their utility.  One thing is for certain:  iPad makes Steve Jobs happy.

We should also commend Apple not just for making so much money and spreading global happiness, but also for providing, at last, the answer to "couch computing".  Check out the recent ads featuring an iPad on the sofa.  Now you watch TV, drink beer, eat chips, and use your iPad.  Now what could make one happier than that?  Maybe iPadTV.  Don't worry.  It's in the works.

 
 
 

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